Development on Hold

A washed out bridge near Juba, still unrepairable from last years rains. Locals can choose between crossing a deadly ford, or a five hour detour.

Five months on from my first visit, how much has changed in South Sudan?

In April this year the gravest dangers facing the world’s newest country was the risk of open war with its old patriarch, and the budgetary crisis caused by the ceasing of oil production. South Sudan had recently come to blows with the North over the Heglig/Panthou oil field, and the North had regularly been bombing Bentiu in Unity State. An acute paranoia gripped the country and the rumour mill started turning at full speed, some suggesting (including myself) that SAF bombers had been heard over Juba in a gross overestimation of their range and capability.

In addition to this the country was staring into the abyss of a financial collapse. Government austerity had crippled the operational budgets of ministries too scared to cut salaries (a downside to patronage based statebuilding). This meant that masses of Government employees were coming into work, only to sit and watch the world pass-by and cash a pay-check. Not helping was the rapid inflation, in the two months of my research trip the exchange rate increased from 2.7SSP to the Dollar, up to 3.7SSP.

Five months later and whilst the threat of open war has subsided, the country remain on the brink. Juba, which had once been considered a boom town, has stagnated. South Sudan is perhaps the only country to envy the financial woes of Greece.

Gone are the days of paying $200 a night for a shipping container masquerading as a hotel room in Juba. Today one can expect such luxuries as A/C and hot water for $50 a night. Whilst the Government has successfully stabilised the currency (at around 4SSP to the Dollar), it has come at a high price. Cutting operational budgets had not even come close to balancing the books, and salaries have now come under fire. Whilst the government is claiming it can evade disaster due to the help of ‘an anonymous international benefactor’ no one is buying it, as pensions for government staff have not been paid for two months now.

All this is having a devastating impact on the countries development. The Government is putting pressure on NGOs to pay staff in dollars; many have gone on strike and ceased operations. Overseas investment has ceased as the countries cringe-worth labour laws and inflation has scared away all but the more roguish investors (logging and prospecting are still flourishing). The roads and buildings I saw on my first visit have become a skeletal memory of happier times. A Chinese-built bridge damaged in last year’s rains remains broken (pictured above), and the near-by ford used to cross claimed 11 lives last month.

Yet the most worrying sign is the deterioration of security, with sky-rocketing crime and corruption fuelled by desperate government employees and the unemployed. This month two people were injured and one killed after being ambushed by gunmen on returning from the bank, whilst the incidents of extortion from police and soldiers is at an all-time high. Last week a driver for an NGO in Western Equatoria was beaten and arrested for failing to compensate a policeman he had allegedly splashed with a puddle.

The prospect of economic stagnation, endemic crime and internal conflict has replaced the threat of renewed open war with the North, but this is by no means a happier situation. Yet despite these three horsemen of the post-war apocalypse, the forth represent the gravest threat. And the last thing South Sudan needs is a Coup D’état.

Teddy Dawes

Follow me on Twitter: @teddydawes